COST OF NOT BUYING A HOME
1) Rent Lost
Rent = $1,200/MO - the average person takes 30 days to buy.
If you wait 6 months, you will pay you landlord ……………….. $6,000
2) Rate Change
If today’s rate is 5.5% on a 30 Year fixed rate mortgage, assuming a $200,000 sales price with 5% down:
Your payment will be… $1,073 per month…
The following shows what happens to your payment if your rate goes up by the time you buy (in ½% increments)
Rate Pmt Loss/mo Cost/YR Cost 7/YRs Cost 30/YRs
6.0% $1,133 $ 60 $ 720 $ 5,040 $21,600
6.5% $1,194 $121 $1,452 $10,164 $43,560
7.0% $1,256 $183 $2,196 $15,372 $65.880
This number you must look at from the long term picture. If you wait 6 months to buy a home, it is possible (or even likely) that the rates will be up .5%. The cost/loss to you IS NOT $60 per month. The cost is $60 per month times however many months you own the home. The average American owns a home 7 years, so that loss equals $5,040. If you keep this home as a rental property (a great idea especially for your first home and when rates are this low) then the loss is times 30 years, or $21,600. Of course if you look at it like a good financial planner would, your loss is not simply the $21,000 but it’s that amount times the opportunity cost of lost interest had you invested that money yielding 5%-10% appreciation compounded annually. This of course multiplies the loss to 2 to 3 times the actual cash loss!!!!
And if you are waiting until “next year” to buy that rental property…”Hello”!
3) Appreciation Lost (Assuming a $200,000 sales price)
Appreciation Per Month 6 Months 1 year
3% $ 500 $ 3,000 $ 6,000
5%* $ 833 $ 5,000 $10,000
6% $2,000 $ 6,000 $12,000
8% $1,333 $16,000 $32,000
10% $1,666 $20,000 $40,000
*Metro Atlanta typically appreciates at an average rate of 4%-5% per year. Atlanta was predicted to appreciate 24% over the next 5 years (CNN.com “Top 10 Places to buy-NOW”)
4) Tax deduction/interest write-off
This is the trickiest of the calculations because everybody’s tax situation is different, and the tax code is a tad bit complicated. But as a general rule, you can write off 100% of the interest portion of your payment. And if you didn’t know, the interest portion is MOST of the payment (for the first few years anyway).
For example: using the examples above, with a $1,073 per month payment ($190k loan @ 5.5%), the interest portion of the first payment is around $850 per month. So that’s the write off that you will NOT be getting per month until you buy. Most people buying this price home are in the 28% tax bracket plus 6% state. That means the actual cash loss is the monthly payment times your tax bracket. Let’s say 33%. So in this example, you are losing $280 per month CASH in tax deduction that you are not receiving. That’s not even taking in to account that writing off $10,200 per year ($850 times 12 months) would probably take you in to a lower tax bracket; consequently, you would pay taxes at a lower rate…… (again, I am not an accountant nor do I ever want to be one; so, consult a CPA regarding your particular tax situation).
So,….Your “lack of deduction loss” is appx.…. $250- $300 per month
SUMMARY: IF YOU WAIT 6 MONTHS TO BUY, YOU ARE LOSING BETWEEN $8,000 AND $15,000 IN THAT TIME ALONE! IF YOU MISS TODAYS RATE, IT COULD COST ANOTHER $15,000 TO $100,000 MORE OVER THE LONG HAUL.
One last point: Affordability and lifestyle
I do not recommend ANYONE BUYING A HOME that they can not afford, or that will make them ‘house-poor’. I recommend that you should be fairly conservative. This means add up your PITI (total mortgage payment with taxes and insurance added in) and your payment should NOT be above 30% of your GROSS monthly income (before taxes).
Remember this, though: If you ‘wait’ to buy, that $200,000 home will most likely be $210,000 next year (5% appreciation). So the question you must ask is, “Is my income going up 5% per year?” If not then you will be able to afford LESS in a year than you can now.
**This is not intended as an earnings claim on purchasing real property. Past results are not in indication of future performance. Please consult your tax advisor (ask about the W-4 form).